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Lilly Revenue Guidance Rises Along With Diabetes, Obesity Investments

Oral GLP-1, Injectable GGG Agonists Moving Into Phase III

 
• By Mandy Jackson

Lilly will increase spending, resulting in lower-than-expected EPS, to drive its revenue growth, relying on sales of new products, particularly its next generation of incretin agonists for diabetes and obesity.

Lilly Corporate Center Indianapolis
Lilly will launch four products in 2023 and may gain a weight loss indication for Mounjaro • Source: Shutterstock

Initial investor reaction to Eli Lilly and Company's guidance of revenue growth from $28.5bn-$29bn in 2022 to $30.3bn-$30.8bn was negative, because while that range came in above consensus, Lilly revealed aggressive investments in late-stage clinical trials – including Phase III programs for two new diabetes and obesity drugs – as well as manufacturing and commercialization to support new product launches, with non-GAAP earnings per share for next year likely to be $8.10-$8.30, significantly below expectations of $9.20.

Analysts cheered Lilly’s decision to invest behind its next round of incretin agonists given the early commercial success of glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1)/glucose-dependent insulinotropic polypeptide (GIP) agonist Mounjaro (tirzepatide) and the general enthusiasm for the GLP-1 drug class in type 2 diabetes and obesity

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