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Rapid Rise Or Slow Roll: How Long Does It Take To Become A Blockbuster?

 
• By Jessica Merrill and Nancy Pham

Scrip analyzed data on top-selling drugs to see how long it takes to surpass $1bn in revenues and grow into $5bn and even $10bn brands.

Rapid Rise Or Slow Roll
• Source: Shutterstock

A new drug that is quick to reach blockbuster status – or $1bn in revenues – is often a sign of a mega-blockbuster in the making. Launch trajectories are a closely watched metric to evaluate a new drug’s likelihood of long-term commercial success.

Historically, $200m in first year sales for a new drug has been a benchmark for predicting an eventual blockbuster-sized seller, though in some therapeutic areas like oncology and immunology, launch trajectories have lengthened as the

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