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Two Cheers for Conventional Wisdom

The real source of first-mover advantage, much extolled in the dot com world and among the advocates of unfettered innovation, is as often luck as it is vision. The problem is that, when these major strategic moves fail--and most of them do--there's no inexpensive way to retreat.

Last month in this space, discussing the myth of first-mover advantage, we noted the power of entrenched interests to foil the plans of innovators. In effect, a combination of hospital purchasing groups and large manufacturers, the latter joined in an e-distribution consortium called the Global Health Care Exchange LLC , stole the forward momentum of the start-up supply chain companies who had needed the support of both groups in order to get their businesses off the ground.

But entrenched players or not, the source of any first-mover advantage is as often good luck as anything else—guessing right about something without all the required information.

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