Oncology is, by far, the most lucrative market within biopharma, with Evaluate 2030 sales predictions of more than twice that of the next therapeutic area. In this contested and increasingly granular arena there is constant demand for innovation. A review of Evaluate forecasts highlights several unpartnered assets in the cancer space that have the potential to command high sales returns.
To qualify for this analysis the treatments were required to be in the clinic and have no in-place agreements with other companies. The ranking of the assets is based on their net present value (NPV) – the sum of future predicted cash flows.
CB010 & CB011 - Caribou Biosciences
The two highest NPVs, according to Evaluate data, for clinical-stage oncology assets without licensing partners or big company involvement both belong to Caribou Biosciences. Both CB010 and CB011 are currently in Phase I trials, unusually early to be seeing such bullish forecasts from the sell-side, so there are many hurdles to overcome before this predicted value can begin to be realized.
CB010, an anti-CD19 CAR T-cell therapy, is the Californian company’s lead asset and hopes to distinguish itself in the now-crowded allogenic cell therapy sector with a PD-1 knockout mechanism to improve on the durability weakness often seen in similar therapies. CB010 is currently in Phase I for non-Hodgkin lymphoma, its lead indication, but also started clinical trials in lupus in January 2025.
At ASCO 2024 Caribou presented interim data from the Phase I ANTLER trial demonstrating the potential for the CAR-T treatment in 2nd-line relapsed or refractory large B-cell lymphoma to rival approved autologous therapies in terms of both safety and efficacy. However, this also came with news of delays to the start of CB010’s pivotal trial, previously slated for the back half of 2024, until late 2025 as the company shifted its focus to human leukocyte antigen (HLA) matching – which it believes could be the key to seeing better responses. Caribou aims to release the HLA matching data update in the first half of 2025.
CB011 is another of Caribou’s CAR-T therapies, this time targeting B-cell maturation antigen (BCMA). The anti-BCMA agent is currently in Phase I for multiple myeloma (MM). Caribou released a business update in March saying that dose escalation data from its CaMMouflage in relapsed or refractory MM cleared with no observed dose-limiting toxicities in any of its four dosages. The company also made encouraging commentary on efficacy of CB011 following lymphodepletion and stated it is continuing enrolment at multiple dosage levels with an expanded lymphodepletion regimen.
While neither of Caribou’s projects listed here currently have partners onboard this was not always the case. In 2021 AbbVie and Caribou announced a CAR-T cell therapy development partnership deal. However, the agreement was scrapped by AbbVie in September 2023 with the big pharma citing a narrowing of strategic focus – rather than any performance-related issue from Caribou.
Moreso than any other assets on this list Caribou’s would be a gamble for potential dealmakers – although a relatively cheap one. The assets are very early in their development and CB010’s pivot to HLA matching was not received favorably by investors. The stock currently sits at $0.90, an all-time low, but if the HLA matching data is positive it will likely breathe new life into Caribou and its CAR-T dreams.
Belzupacap Sarotalocan – Aura Biosciences
Aura Bioscience’s belzupacap sarotalocan (bel-sar) is a virus-like drug conjugate in Phase III for choroidal melanoma and Phase I/II for non-muscle invasive bladder cancer (NMIBC).
Aura presented positive final Phase II data for bel-sar in early-stage choroidal melanoma in September 2024 and with its Phase III CoMpass trial initiated immediately afterwards. CoMpass received a special protocol assessment from the FDA, clearing its regulatory path to approval. According to Evaluate data, bel-sar could begin making sales in first-line choroidal melanoma as early as 2027 with sell-side consensus sales of $668m by 2030.
In March Aura announced that they would also pursue an aggressive development plan for bel-sar in NMIBC following its positive Phase I data in intermediate and high-risk patients. NMIBC is a hotly contested market, especially in the high-risk population. However, lower risk settings are less crowded and could be an opportunity for Aura.
Although Aura has a reasonable cash runway to carry out operations through to 2026, its share price sits at a low of $5.36. Although this latest dip may be due to macro effects on US stocks, Aura has been on a downward trend for some time.
Neladalkib - Nuvalent
Neladalkib (NVL-655) is an anaplastic lymphoma kinase (ALK) inhibitor being developed by Nuvalent. Neladalkib’s lead indication is ALK-positive non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) for which Nuvalent plans to initiate a Phase III trial in the first half of 2025. Nuvalent announced the pivotal ALKAZAR trial will pit neladalkib against standard-of-care alectinib in first-line, stage III/IV NSCLC. However, the estimated completion date of 2029 is some way out.
In May 2024 neladalkib was granted breakthrough therapy designation based on the initial data from its Phase I/II trial AKOVE-1. Then at ESMO 2024 Nuvalent presented further impressive, updated results from the Phase I portion of ALKOVE-1 in second and third-line patients with solid tumors. The Phase II portion of ALKOVE, including TKI pre-treated patients with advanced ALK-positive NSCLC, is slated to read out by year-end 2025.
Nuvalent’s market cap currently sits at $4.23bn, making it an expensive proposition for dealmaking compared to the other companies on this list. However, the company has previously stated that it is potentially open to partnerships for development and commercialization purposes.
JNX007 - Janux Therapeutics
JNX007, lead asset of Janux Therapeutics, is a masked T-cell engager that targets prostate-specific membrane antigen (PSMA). JNX007 is another early stage asset, currently in Phase I for prostate cancer.
In December 2024 Janux presented updated data from its Phase I study for castrate-resistant prostate cancer in fifth-line patients – demonstrating efficacy and safety results which impressed analysts and investors.
Janux now has its eyes set on prior lines of treatment as third line or earlier would put it before Novartis’s Pluvicto, the only approved PSMA-targeting therapy. The company intends to start a Phase II/III pivotal trial once it completes a Phase Ib expansion into these earlier lines of treatment, with Evaluate currently predicting a potential launch of 2027.
Janux is one of the few smaller players in the masked T-cell engager space to not have a partnership inked with a larger company. The continued success of JNX007 in the eyes of investors has pushed the market cap of Janux up to $1.5bn which, although lower than the highs of over $3bn seen in the wake of the results, is still an expensive price-tag for such an early-stage company for dealmakers who may be considering more than a partnership.
