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Roche and Amgen Watched in Challenge over EPO

Published in May's RPM Report as "A CERA-ous Challenge to Amgen's EPO Franchise?" How serious is the follow-on biological challenge from Roche's CERA to Amgen Inc.'s $6 billion erythropoietin (Epogen) franchise? Serious enough to move Amgen from a growth favorite to a biotech bargain. Serious enough to threaten the ability of Amgen and Procrit manufacturer Johnson & Johnson Inc. to find new dollars in the EPO world market in 2009 and beyond.

How serious is the follow-on biological challenge from Roche 's CERA to Amgen Inc. 's $6 billion erythropoietin franchise? ►Serious enough to be a big factor in a prolonged anemic performance by Amgen's stock. Since the beginning of 2006, the company has lost about 15% of its market capitalization. It has moved from a growth favorite to a biotech bargain. ►Serious enough for the major investment firms following Amgen to haul out their patent law consultants to hold vigil over patent litigation between the two firms in anticipation of an 18-month round of legal maneuvering. ►Serious enough to rank number one on Amgen's list of "Key Investor Issues" in recent company presentations. ►Serious enough to threaten the ability of Amgen and Procrit manufacturer Johnson & Johnson Inc. to find new dollars in the EPO world market in 2009 and beyond.

Amgen clearly will not cede the EPO field without a good multi-front fight—legal, political, regulatory and in the marketplace. In the interim, the company's performance on Wall Street will be...

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