Biogen Resets Aduhelm Expectations, Expects Longer, Slower Path To Significant Sales

Best Case Scenario: Meaningful Patient Access Over Time

The company reported $1m in Q4 sales of its Alzheimer’s drug. Biogen expects Aduhelm to make a minimal contribution to full-year 2022 revenues, which will total about $1bn less than in 2021.

Autumn view of a long forest path — Biogen hopes to gain "meaningful patient access over time" from CMS • Source: Alamy

If the final decision from the US Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services on covering Biogen, Inc.’s Aduhelm (aducanumab) and other amyloid-targeting therapies for Alzheimer’s disease does not improve from the draft national coverage determination (NCD) announced last month, Biogen will have to ramp up cost cuts it already has in the works and may reduce its revenue guidance further for 2022.

The $500m in planned cost cuts and the company’s full-year 2022 product revenue guidance of $9.7bn-$10bn assume that the final NCD is at least somewhat better than the draft NCD released in January. (Also see "Medicare Draft NCD For Alzheimer's Drugs: When 'Reasonable And Necessary' And 'Safe And Effective' No Longer Align" - Pink Sheet, 12 January, 2022

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