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Stock Watch: Novo Edges Ahead Of Lilly In GLP-1 Agonist Battle

Gold Only Glitters If You Can Manufacture It

 
• By Andy Smith

The sales performances of the GLP-1 agonists dominated the earnings of Novo Nordisk and Lilly, with both stocks hitting 52-week highs after their results. But one moved ahead of the other in an important strategic bottleneck.

Stock Watch Image, Andy Smith
ANDY SMITH OFFERS A LIFE SCIENCE INVESTOR'S PERSPECTIVE ON BIOPHARMA BUSINESS

For at least the last six months, the two leading contenders in the battle for GLP-1 agonist supremacy in diabetes and obesity – Novo Nordisk A/S and Eli Lilly and Company – reported their quarterly results in the same week or even on the same day. (Also see "Stock Watch: Where Novo And Lilly Lead, Others Follow" - Scrip, 21 November, 2023.) With Lilly reporting after Novo and many US funds confined to holding only US-domiciled stocks, the cumulatively good clinical and financial news from both companies seemed to benefit Lilly the most. But in fourth-quarter and full-year 2023 earnings season, Novo reported almost a week before Lilly in what appeared to be a successful move to establish clear blue reporting water between the two.

At first glance, I struggled to find any negatives in Novo Nordisk’s results. When I did, they were logical and elective. Its fourth-quarter sales grew by 37% on the same quarter of 2022, by over 12% between the ends of the third and fourth quarters of 2023 and beat analysts’ consensus estimates by 4%

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