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Novartis Bets Big on Meningitis:Wall Street Awaits Blockbuster Vaccine Franchise

 
• By Cole Werble

Two years after shaking up the vaccine field with its big entry-acquisition of Chiron, Novartis AG has identified a make-or-break pair of projects in the meningitis area. The meningitis vaccines will determine whether the Novartis bet on vaccines will turn into a smart long-term diversification or a low-return move into an unfamiliar and unfriendly segment of health care.

In April 2006, Novartis AG laid out an astounding amount for Chiron’s vaccine business: $5.7 billion, a price tag equal to more than 50% of the entire global vaccine market at the time. And it wasn’t even a particularly healthy company; Chiron’s vaccines had also-ran positions in the US (ranked 4th at the time of the purchase) and Europe (ranked 3rd).

Novartis didn’t stop there. Since purchasing Chiron, the company has kept up an active investment and retooling program in vaccines, accepting low-margin returns (about 5% in 2007 and likely to...

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